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Monday, June 1, 2009

Some Patriotic Perspective on the Odds of Lebron Leaving, Courtesy of Jack Bauer

Posted By on Mon, Jun 1, 2009 at 2:59 PM

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Now that the Cavs are out of the playoffs you're going to read a whole lot of articles hypothesizing whether the failed championship chase of 2009 means that LeBron is more or less likely to leave in the great free agent rush of 2010. Brace yourself for an even larger rush once the finals are over and teams are permitted to offer extensions (June 18). Once LeBron rejects that, the avalanche of Will He or Won't He columns will be unstoppable.

Two quick thoughts about this nonsense.

1. Best line I've read so far in the debate comes from Chris Mannix in SI's roundtable discussion of LeBron:

"The ability to provide LeBron with a potential dynasty was one of Cleveland's strongest selling points and perhaps the only advantage they have over the Knicks, who will strip their roster after next season in anticipation of signing James and a quality sidekick. So this loss hurts. That said, I think next season is more important. If the Cavaliers win the championship in 2010, it is going to be difficult for James to participate in a parade in Cleveland in late June and walk away from them in early July."

2. SportsBetting has odds the chances each of the big name free agents stays with his current team come 2010 — that would be the Bosh, Wade, LeBron class.

Odds on LeBron: Stay -200/Leave +155. (Wade — Stay -220/Leave +170; Bosh — Stay +170/ Leave -220).

To put that in perspective, the -200/+155 is almost the exact reverse odds that BetUS has on the chance of Kiefer Sutherland getting arrested again in 2009 (Yes: +150/ No -200).

SportsBetting also has a line on whether LeBron will win over or under 4.5 MVP awards before the start of the 2019 season — Over: -110/ Under -120.

(Hat tip to Vegas Watch)

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