Jason D. Hamad 
Member since Jul 15, 2013


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Re: “Indians Fan Caught FOUR Foul Balls Yesterday. Odds: 1 in 1 Trillion

Yeah, that's some really bad statistical analysis. The probability of catching a foul ball has way more to do with where one sits than how many attend. If one sits in the bleachers the probability is 0 because one isn't in foul territory. If one sits in the upper deck it's going to be relatively small, if nonzero. Someone down the line near first or third base where most foul balls are hit, however, has a much greater chance. A better analysis would be based on factors such as the number of balls hit within catchable range of that particular spot in the history of the Jake, the probability of any given person catching one of those balls (rather than others around him--the only factor that does possibly have to do with attendance--and accounting for factors such as his/her athleticism compared to the 70-year-old grandmother and 9-year-old little leaguer also seated nearby), and the likelihood of those conditions being replicated four times in one game. Glad this guy's a sportscaster and not in charge of anything, you know, important. Regardless, that's some impressive luck.

Posted by Jason D. Hamad on 07/15/2013 at 7:46 PM

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