And if the year of living sequentially doesn't destroy the movie biz, then the expected labor strike (also a sequel) will. Trapped in a horror of its own making, Hollywood is scared witless by the looming prospect of negotiating not one, but two labor contracts in 2007: the Writers Guild of America, whose gangsta refusal to begin negotiating early with the studios foreshadows a retread of the disastrous 1988 walkout, which shut down production for 22 weeks and cost the industry about $500 million; and the Screen Actors Guild, whose talks may begin in January, but could mean squat. Both writers and actors are still bummed over being stiffed by the studios during the DVD era and are determined not to be bullied again.
Both Hannibal Rising (the fourth Hannibal Lecter pic) and The Hills Have Eyes II will serve as foreplay for next summer's sequel orgy, rounded out by Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third, another Pirates of the Caribbean, Hostel: Part II, Fantastic Four 2, Evan Almighty (follow-up to Jim Carrey's Bruce Almighty, this time starring Steve Carell), Live Free or Die Hard (Bruce Willis as John McClane for the fourth time), Transformers (a live-action sequel to the animated original), Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (fifth in the series), The Bourne Ultimatum (No. 3), and Rush Hour 3. Then, orgasming at the end of the year (get that Marlboro Ultra Light ready) are Resident Evil 3, Mr. Bean's Holiday (Bean II), The Golden Age (aka Elizabeth 2), Alien vs. Predator 2, National Treasure II, and Halloween 2007 (too many to count).
And those are just the ones I know about.
Yes, in 2007 the very idea of original screenplays will become increasingly quaint, like real butter on popcorn. There will be a few non-sequel movies, but those are mostly remakes, biopics, or book adaptations. (At least we can all be thankful that, unlike in previous years, there'll be almost no TV spin-offs. Bewitched in 2005 saw to that.)
The major studios are downsizing their own egos, since they no longer have the luxury to make Oscar movies that might please academy voters and film aficionados, but not necessarily the public at large. Instead of attempting something -- hell, anything -- new, studio moguls are more content than ever to do, and redo, and redo yet again the familiar. But don't blame them; blame their bosses, those hedge-fund-loopy tools, who find it easier to schmooze Wall Street about another Fantastic Four than to debate a greenlighting decision like Charlie Wilson's War, the Tom Hanks-Julia Roberts biopic about a boozin', hot-tubbin' U.S. Congressman that is scheduled to debut in December 2007. These are the bigwigs who insist that their studio's upcoming slate contain several bankable movie franchises -- or else -- and whose underlings invented the prequel as a way to invigorate played-out franchises. And just wait for 2008: Universal thinks there's still life in Jurassic Park, and Paramount is reviving not just Star Trek, but also Indiana Jones (and maybe casting a new star for Mission: Impossible).
See, it simply takes too much moolah to create awareness for new concepts -- in marketing parlance, this is known as "audience creation." It's a given that with franchises and remakes, the awareness for under-25 males -- the most coveted moviegoers -- approaches 100 percent. But with original stories, it drops below 60 percent. And as movie budgets approach $100 million each and marketing costs $36.2 million per pic, studios are rightly loath to gamble on non-proven product. Riding coattails takes the risk out of a notoriously risky biz, which means moguls can have fewer Maalox moments in what is tantamount to a life on meth. Production has dwindled to just a dozen films from each major each year, most of them sequels.
Studios used to be embarrassed by their sequels. No more. When Disney announced a huge cost-cutting plan to appease financial analysts last summer, the mega-company promised that in 2007 it would devote its resources to those films that have the potential to generate money-minting sequels. And did we mention that sequels are virtually critic-proof? Reviewers who gave thumbs up to Pirates 1 and flipped the bird to Pirates 2 didn't affect box office at all. The sequel was beyond huge, and Pirates 3 will be too.
Also on the horizon and with some buzz is a spate of biopics, most of them set peculiarly in the 1970s. Nick Cassavetes wrote and directed Alpha Dog, which debuts in January and is based on the misadventures of Jesse James Hollywood, one of the youngest criminals ever to land on the FBI's Most Wanted List. Then there's David Fincher's Zodiac, a thriller about the notorious San Francisco serial killer starring Jake Gyllenhaal, and Lasse Hallström's The Hoax, starring Richard Gere as the Jayson Blair of the 1970s. Brad Pitt is the original Missouri good-ol'-boy outlaw in The Assassination of Jesse James, and J-Lo and hubby Marc Anthony bring salsa star Hector Lavoe's life to the screen in El Cantante.
If little else, it's clear that the problems plaguing Hollywood will only grow worse in 2007: piracy, which the movie industry says is stealing $1.3 billion in the U.S. alone; new media, though no one at the studios has yet figured out how to make money online; and young Hollywood, better known for its tabloid performances than memorable roles.
My prediction? Hollywood big shots will find ways to pay themselves bigger bonuses while cutting the pay and perks for everyone else. And that's certainly not an original idea.
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