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Monday, September 18, 2017

Here’s How the Tribe’s World Series Chances Stack Up After That Winning Streak

Posted By on Mon, Sep 18, 2017 at 4:01 PM

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While the Cleveland Indians’ historic winning streak may have come to an end over the weekend, all the data experts have had time to recalculate postseason odds to take the red-hot Tribe into account.

And most Tribe fans should like what they see.

To recap: With a day off Monday to travel to the West Coast, the Tribe have clinched the AL Central Division title and have the best record in the American League at 93-57, 1.5 games up on the Astros for the top playoff spot.

The remaining schedule for the Tribe is of moderate difficulty with their remaining opponents having a .482 winning percentage. Two of those teams are very much in the Wild Card hunt (the Anaheim Angels and the Minnesota Twins) and the other two teams are not (the Seattle Mariners and the Chicago White Sox).

But even though the streak has ended, the Indians are still the hottest team in baseball with AL Cy Young favorite Corey Kluber and MVP contenders Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor. And the data predictions think so, too.

Most notable among the predictors is Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight (an ESPN property) that ranks the Indians as their favorite to win the World Series. A fan of the impressive winning streak, the site puts the Tribe ahead of both the Dodgers and the Stros.

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According to the site, the Tribe are the favorites to win the World Series with a 26% chance, ahead of the Dodgers at 18% and both the Astros and Nationals, each at 12%.

One more prediction worth considering: Though they predict the team to finish out the season 8-4 for a final record of 101-61, FiveThirtyEight lists the Tribe as the favored winner in each of their last 12 games, with the tightest chances at around 54-55% against the Angels.

I’m not saying another winning streak is gonna happen, but it’s not the craziest suggestion.

Elsewhere, Fangraphs gives the Indians over a 60% chance of winning their Divisional Series and has tem tied with the Astros at a 31.2% chance of winning the League Championship Series.

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As for winning it all, Fangraphs lists the Indians as currently having an 18.2% chance of winning the World Series, behind only the Astros who eek past the Tribe with a 19.1% chance.

Though not as well known as the previous examples, Baseball Prospectus is yet another publication that has the Indians as the current favorite to win the World Series at a 23.2% chance, just ahead of the Dodgers.

And, if you need one final note to bring you hope for 2017, sports book Bovada has the Tribe as favorites to win the AL and tied with the Dodgers in World Series odds. If the data guys and Vegas like their odds, we probably should, too.

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