While it’s certainly hard to quibble with a performance like the historic 43-13-15 line that James put up against the Nuggets last night— and yes, historic, as in triple-double numbers reached for the first time since Pistol Pete and Oscar Robertson — the 118-116 loss to Denver presents a perfect case study for one of the few glaring problems in LeBron’s game: 3-pointers.
It’s not so much his ability to drain shots from behind the arc (he’s shooting .353 from there) that drives fans’ consternation so much as when and how often he decided to let it fly from deep. He always seems to get 3-happy a) When he’s not hitting 3’s, and b) When the game is close. The Nuggets game is a perfect example.
That 43-13-15 line looks and is impressive, but look deeper and you’ll see how much more impressive it could have been. LeBron was 12-16 from the field within ten feet of the basket last night — just about where you’d expect him to be — but was just 3-17 from everywhere else, including just 1-9 from behind the arc. Four of those misses came in overtime, including the last second shot where LeBron slipped. Two more came in the fourth quarter and, specifically, during the last 5:30 of the game when the score was either tied or close.
(Note: It’s not entirely fair to say his 1-9 from 3-point land is a perfect example, because we all know LeBron will shoot better than that on most nights. However, it was the sort of close game where the Cavs were forced into some possessions when they had to take 3’s that is surely going to present itself again in the playoffs.)
His only make, and the reason why many gloss over the problems in his shot selection, came with the Cavs trailing 103-106 with 46 seconds left to play, after Anthony had just put the Nuggets up three points. Of course, he nailed a dagger to tie the game. Clutch LeBron shows up again. We’ll forgive the errant bombs because when the pressure is on, when no one else seems to be able to do anything, LeBron can make that shot.
But should they have been in that position? It’s not fair to peg the loss on LeBron, but it’s also not fair to ignore his role in making the game a lot closer than it should have been. The Cavs gave up way too many easy baskets in the 4th, couldn’t hit a free throw to save their life, were playing without Z for the first time, didn’t have Jamison on the court, had all sorts of rebounding troubles, and had Mo Williams trying to find a rhythm in his first game back after missing significant time with a shoulder injury. And, oh yeah, they were playing the Nuggets, Western Conference contenders.
Whatever the reasons, the game was close, and as so often happens in situations like that, LeBron takes over the offense in the fourth quarter. Fine. We want the ball in his hands, and, more often than not, he makes the right decision in that position.
Hoisting 3’s doesn’t qualify as the right decision, however. Not when he can get to the rim whenever he wants — for example: the tying layup and subsequent foul shot with 23 seconds left in OT, or the 15 assists he dished out. And not when his shot chart for the season looks like this:
Sometime during the last minutes of regulation or in overtime, TNT went over to the analysts during a timeout and Mike Fratello was asked what the Cavs were going to do. His response, and I’m paraphrasing was, “Well, if LeBron wants to shoot a 3-pointer, that’s what he’s going to do. It certainly looks like he feels like he’s got something there.”
If you need a quick reminder — LeBron on 3-point attempts for the game: 1-9.
But Fratello is right. If that’s what LeBron wants to do, that’s what he’s going to do. And do you know how often LeBron feels like hoisting a 3? A lot. A freaking lot. More than he should ever even consider. More than anyone on the team. In fact, more than only four players in the entire league.
That’s right, LeBron ranks 5th in the NBA in most 3’s attempted with 286 so far this year. Only Danilo Gallinari, Aaron Brooks, Peja Stojakovich, and Travor Ariza have more.
25.7% of LeBron’s field goal attempts are 3’s. 286 out of 1110.
His 35.3 shooting % on 3’s, however, ranks 77th in the league among qualified players.
Make sense? Probably not, especially when you have Boobie Gibson (ranked 2nd in %), Anthony Parker (ranked 6th), and Mo Williams (ranked 8th) on your roster.
For what it’s worth, in the Cleveland’s 12 losses, LeBron averages 6.5 3-point attempts per game (season average of 5.2 attempts per game), and is connecting on only 33% of them (season average of 35.3%).
Here are LeBron’s stats on 3’s for his career:
03-04: 63/217 (29%)
04-05: 108/308 (35.1%)
05-06: 127/379 (33.5%)
06-07: 99/310 (31.9%)
07-08: 113/359 (31.5%)
08-09: 132/384 (34.4%)
09-10: 101/286 (35.3%)
So while LeBron’s on pace to set a career high in 3-point percentage, he’s also on pace for a staggering 426 attempts from long range. If this trend continues, he’s also on pace for about 1624 field goal attempts, and a higher percentage of those will be 3’s than ever before in his career. Take a look:
3’s Attempted/Total Field Goals Attempted
03-04: 217/1492 (14.5%)
04-05: 308/1684 (18.2%)
05-06: 379/1823 (20.7%)
06-07: 310/1621 (19.1%)
07-08: 359/1642 (21.8%)
08-09: 384/1623 (23.6%)
09-10 (Projected): 426/1624 (25%)
This in his 7th year, when he’s developed a better post game, grown into a beast of a linebacker athlete, become an absolute magician at getting to the rim and finishing, is on cruise control to a second consecutive MVP award, is surrounded by three very legitimate long-range sharpshooters who are among the league’s leaders from behind the arc, and causes foul trouble for the opposition whenever he gets into the lane (as evidenced by the fact that LeBron’s on pace for a career-high 836 FTA this year). You’d think becoming a better 3-point shooter, as he has become, would be something LeBron would strive for at this point in his career, but jacking up more 3’s seems incongruous with what is naturally good and dominating about his game.
Again, it’s hard to quibble. A TS% of of 0.610, eFG% of 0.550, a 31.8 PER, and an average-per-game line of 30.1-7.2-8.4. But it’s hard to imagine that Cleveland’s offense, and James’ stat line, couldn’t be better with fewer 3’s and more efficient and smarter shot selection from LeBron.
Follow me on Twitter: @vincethepolack.
This article appears in Feb 17-23, 2010.
nice analysis, vince. im not a cavs fan but i do like lebron (how can you not). his need to get 3-happy has always bothered me
Hey I’m not the only one puzzled by how often he takes three’s. It’s funny how players always talk about getting to the rim, but how often do they turn right around and lauch 17 3 pointers in a row?
Seriously, Basketbal 101: Get to the rim. And here, you have the most unstoppable man in the entire world in LeBron James and he has this weird fascination with 3’s.
I wish someone would slap him upside the head and tell him to go to the rim everytime. I don’t care if they have all 5 guys in the lane, if LeBron wants to get to the rim, he will.
I’m open to your conclusion, but this post fails to convince me. A lot more needs to be taken into consideration.
First of all I’d like to see his effective FG% on threes compared to his eFG% on two-pointers and on two-point jumpers. I’d also like to compare the Cavs’ offensive efficiency in games when LeBron shoots a high number of threes versus games in which he shoots a low number. Does the offense really perform better when LeBron avoids the 3?
There is also the factor of “bail-out” and “desperation” shots at the end of the shot or game clock, which LeBron likely shoots a disproportionate number of. Those are low-percentage shots but beneficial for someone to take. It would be useful to track and account for those in some way.
That is one reason that the comparison of percentages between LeBron and teammates is not that useful. But another one is that those players cannot get those shots at any time, while LeBron can. You cannot simply substitute a Mo three for a LeBron three – the results could be worse if you did. The Cavs’ shooters largely require some space, and it’s not always possible to get that.
And most importantly, you can argue that LeBron needs to establish his jumper in order to open up the inside, where we know he finishes effectively and draws the defense away from shooters. Defenders are not going to respect his jumper unless he actually takes and makes it regularly. And as good as LeBron is, good defenses can shut him out of the paint if they are willing to concede the perimeter. So arguably you don’t get that 70% inside, and those other guys shooting 40% from outside, without LeBron establishing his outside shot, except against the worst teams. (And if he’s gonna be taking outside shots, you probably want those shots to be threes.) And there is the energy factor – even LeBron has limits, and driving to the basket takes maximum exertion. Probably not wise to overdo it and wear out your star closer.
It’s possible that LeBron does not have the balance right. But the 3-point shot is usually an efficient shot, and it’s also possible that LeBron doesn’t shoot it enough. It’s hard to say without some tangible evidence and detailed analysis.