Study: Excess Mortality Rates Higher for Ohio Republicans Than Dems After Covid Vaccine Rollout

Hospital personnel prepare to administer a dose of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine. Credit: Navy Medicine

The politicization of coronavirus vaccination efforts may have contributed to disproportionate death rates of registered Republican voters after vaccines were made available to adults during the pandemic, according to a study conducted by Yale University researchers.

Analyzing the deaths of more than 538,000 people aged 25 years and older in Ohio and Florida between January 2018 and December 2021, researchers found that excess mortality was “significantly higher” among Republican voters than Democratic voters after the vax rollout.

“The differences in excess mortality by political party affiliation after Covid-19 vaccines were available to all adults suggest that differences in vaccination attitudes and reported uptake between Republican and Democratic voters may have been a factor in the severity and trajectory of the pandemic in the US,” the study found.

Excess mortality or excess death refers to the number of deaths during a crisis period that exceed normal death rates.

For both groups, excess death rates were at a baseline of approximately 0%. As Covid-19 ravaged the world through 2020, both parties’ registered voters saw similar trends in excess deaths. Likewise, as fatalities increased through the winter and the start of 2021, Republican and Democratic voters both saw a rise in excess death rates.

That began to change by the summer of 2021, after vaccine rollout made the shot widely available. The gap between Republican voters’ and Democratic voters’ excess death rates grew through the summer and continued to widen in the autumn and winter.

The data reveals dramatic partisan differences. The excess mortality rate for Republican voters was 15%, nearly three percentage points higher than that of Democratic voters. Analyzing deaths after vaccines were publicly available, researchers found the gap between Republican voters’ and Democratic voters’ excess death rates grew significantly.

“After May 1, 2021, when vaccines were available to all adults, the excess death rate gap between Republican and Democratic voters widened from −0.9 percentage point…7.7 percentage points (95% PI, 6.0-9.3 percentage points) in the adjusted analysis; the excess death rate among Republican voters was 43% higher than the excess death rate among Democratic voters,” the study found.

Researchers also found that the gap was most pronounced in counties with lower vaccination rates — particularly in Ohio.

In order to define political party affiliation, researchers used party registration in Florida. In Ohio, they used participation in primary elections within two preceding calendar years. Despite careful analysis, the study has some limitations.

The study didn’t analyze independent voters, third-party voters or non-voters. It also relied on excess mortality rates, which are useful metrics to help researchers comprehend the overall impact of a crisis because they account for deaths indirectly caused by the pandemic or deaths that were not confirmed to have been caused by Covid-19.

However, it is important to note that the excess death rate does not examine cause of death. The study also does not account for individual vaccination statuses.

Additionally, other factors like preexisting conditions, health insurance coverage, race, ethnicity and socioeconomic status aren’t examined in the study, although researchers did note that, “one alternative explanation is that political party affiliation is a proxy for other risk factors.”

The study can be read in full here.

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