The Shore-To-Core-To-Shore TIF District, shown here, could speed up downtown development. Credit: City of Cleveland

The Shore to Core overlay TIF, the city’s plan to speed up development in the downtown core and trigger investment from private companies, passed through the City Planning Commission on Friday.

In his pitch to the board, Jeff Epstein, the head of the Mayor’s Office of Capitol Projects, vowed that the proposed district would have concrete financial payoffs for both Downtown, and Cleveland’s 34 neighborhoods.

Downtown property owners, he told the CPC in his proposal, could see anywhere from a 3.5 percent to a 5.5 percent annual jump in property values if the city’s mega projects on the river and lake are completed.

The TIF, meanwhile, could bring in about $7.5 billion in “cumulative proceeds” by 2066.

“Cleveland lacks in private investment: we’re 97 out of 100 cities in the last decade,” Epstein said in the meeting. He referenced Cincinnati and Columbus, cities that have built massive shopping centers and modern streetscapes using their own TIF districts.

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“Many of these cities have passed us by in terms of the pace of growth,” he added. “We have to make some steps here to achieve this growth and prosperity.”

The idea banks on Downtown’s climb: as property values within the district increase, the taxes from that increase are nestled in a specific fund run by the city instead of paid to their normal outlets.

Profits will be spent on city infrastructure needed for the waterfront projects — water lines, roads, bulkheads, sidewalks — and elsewhere: Bibb has promised that the money won’t only be spent downtown. The proposal would also funnel money into neighborhood recreation centers, for example.

As critics point out, the TIF could have drawbacks. Zach Schiller, a researcher at Policy Matters Ohio, was “skeptical” about Shore-To-Core, believing that it would siphon necessary tax dollars away from nearby institutions, like Tri-C and the Cleveland Public Library. (But not away from Cleveland Schools, as Epstein was careful to point out, which would receive all that would normally be due to them.)

As for how Columbus and Cincinnati fared a decade after their own districts got shiny TIFs, the benefits city-wide are a little harder to pin down. A 2022 study from two Ohio State University researchers, Nick Messenger and Mark Partridge,  found little upside for residents.

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From 2009 to 2019, according to that study, Franklin County amassed $17 billion in taxable property value from and in those TIF districts. The value of homes in or near TIF areas spiked, the researchers found, nine percent on average.

Yet, that very tax burden that once was placed on businesses shifted, the researchers found, to homeowners.

“We find no statewide statistical correlation between TIFs and economic measures such as increased GDP per capita, sales tax base, and personal income,” the researchers concluded. “This calls into question the overall economic benefit of TIFs for the average county taxpayer.”

In his rebuttal, Epstein was careful to emphasize that it’s the city, not the Haslams and Bedrock, that will benefit from the legislation. The Shore-to-Core, he made apparent, “Does not raise taxes. Does not spend any city money. Does not send money to any private developer. And it will not be used for any sports stadium or arena.”

Shore-To-Core is expected to head to City Council for approval in March. Epstein said that the TIF’s financial effect could be seen as early as this summer.

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Mark Oprea is a staff writer at Scene. He's covered Cleveland for the past decade, and has contributed to TIME, NPR, Narratively, the Pacific Standard and the Cleveland Magazine. He's the winner of two Press Club awards.