Milwaukee Bucks. (30-23) The surprise team of the season, Coach Jason Kidd has them playing hard, propelled by the continued growth of their young core. The Bucks play well at both ends and anyone that underestimates them does so at their own peril.
Strengths: Athleticism. With long lean young players like the Greek Freak, John Henson, Kris Middleton, and now Michael Carter-Williams, they’ve managed to post the third-most points off TO in the league (behind Golden State and Dallas), and the fourth most fastbreak points, and they’ve allowed the least of their own, a league-leading 8.5 point swing. They’ve got a very good defense (7th opp. eFG%, 2nd PPP) that excels at defending the 10’-14’ (#1) and 15’-19’ (#3) midrange shots many teams (see, Chicago) live on.
Weaknesses: Their offense is opportunistic because it’s not real dynamic. (17th PPP, 7th eFG%). They’re the league’s third-best three-point shooting team by percentage, but take the 6th fewest shots from range. They take the fourth most shots within 5’, but make them at a middling 12th best rate. They have the 2nd highest turnover rate behind the 76ers. They’re foul-prone (7th most FTA/gm) and poor defensive rebounders (3rd highest Opp. Off. Reb. Rate).
Prognosis: Kidd has these guys playing so well, they recall Indiana a few years ago – hungry and dangerous. They could advance with the right match-up, such as the Wizards, who terrible offensive rebounders and don’t force many turnovers. (For those same reasons, Toronto is a bad match-up for them.) The trade of Knight for Plumlee and Williams adds defensive moxie and more length and athleticism, but at the cost of offense they might have a hard time replacing. That said, Williams style is much more similar to Kidd’s own, and well-suited to the up-and-down game Milwaukee (4th in fastbreak points) likes to play.
True Contenders.
Washington Wizards. (33-21) Probably the weakest of the contenders and currently the 4th seed, just ahead of the Cavs. They’ve endured a lot of injuries, which has held them back. They’re an older team (7 players north of 30) that sometimes seems to play worse than the sum of their parts.
Strengths: A stout defense that has allowed the 2nd fewest shots within 5’ (Charlotte was #1) and the fewest points in the paint in the league (Pacers and Hornets are #2 and #3). They’ve also allowed the 7th fewest fastbreak points while holding opponents to the 5th lowest eFG% and PPP. Third-best defensive rebounding team after Hornets and Pacers.
Weaknesses: They’re just not that great offensively (14th PPP, 10th eFG%), and not real imposing inside. They’re 21st at Points in the Paint, 18th in second chance points, and have the 8th highest Turnover ratio. They’re also one of the worst “Clutch” teams in the league, boasting a net -10 point differential per 100 possessions in those circumstances, while playing the 6th most such minutes. (The Hornets played the 7th most and were nearly as bad (-9), the Mavericks are a league best +30, Warriors half a point behind, followed by the Hawks (+24) and Blazers (+15).)
Prognosis: The players – Nene, Paul Pierce, Bradley Beal, John Wall, Marcin Gortat – seem capable of more than they’ve produced. That lineup has produced an extraordinary 55.6% eFG, 10th best in the league behind only Atlanta and Cleveland’s regular (w/JR & T-Mo) starting lineups in the East. While not as good defensively, it has the firepower to pose anyone a problem when clicking. However those clutch woes loom large.
Toronto Raptors. (36-17) The Raptors have played seven more home games than road games, so while they’ve posted a 65% road winning record during the seasons first two-thirds, they’re record’s a bit deceiving. They’re the opposite of the Wizards, looking a lot less talented than the record or stats suggest.
Strengths: Toronto gets into the paint (8th paint pts) and to the line (4th best) where they make them (4th). They create a lot of 2nd chance points (5th) and points of turnovers (10th). All that contributes to their high scoring (4th PPP) and shooting rates.(7th eFG%).
Weaknesses: For all their inside beef, they’re not very good defensively inside. They allow the 8th highest rate of points in the paint, and the 6th highest number of shots within 5’/game. They’re also 4th worst at defending the 15-19’ shot (Cavs are 5th worst) which typically accounts for more shots than any other region other than up-close. They allow the 9th-highest eFG% (Cavs are 10th), have the 7th highest foul rate, allow a lot of offensive rebound (7th highest rate), though are only 18th in defensive PPP. (The Cavs are 23rd for the season.)
Prognosis: As explosive as their guards are the lack of effective front court offense is going to be an issue in the playoffs when their guards are not able to get the pull-up jump shots (#2 in rate, 25th in FG%) and penetration (#8 in drives/gm, #1 in drive FG%) they rely on. Their defense also doesn’t seem good enough for a long playoff run.
Chicago Bulls. (34-20). At 25-10 on Jan. 6, they looked like challengers to the Hawks (26-8 at that point). Then they lost 10 of 15 in January and early February. They’ve got 11 losses at home more than any winning team other than Phoenix. But they won their last four going into the break, including a victory over our boys, suggesting that perhaps they have turned the corner after their skid.
Strengths: Much better offensively than they’ve been in years, with a high scoring (8th in PPP), three-point shooting (8th best 3 FG%), and free-throw shooting (#2 attempts, #3 FT%) machine. They grab more contested rebounds than anyone but the Pelicans, and their offensive rebound rate is better than anyone in the Eastern Conference.
Weaknesses: For all their size, they’re 20th at points in paint, 27th (!!!!!) at converting shots within 5’, and they’re getting shots blocked than anyone in the league. That’s KILLING them, because they’re getting a lot of them (7th most). They’re also mediocre midrange shooters from 10’-14’ (#23) and 15’-19’ (#15). Their defense is good (#3 in Opp. eFG%) but not as great as it was (13th in PPP). They’re only 12th in Opp. FG% at the rim, they’ve allowed 7th most shots within 5’ (though opponents have converted them at 5th lowest FG% in league). They aren’t creating vary many turnovers (#29) and are 18th in fastbreak points.
Prognosis: They’ve been very good all year but for one stretch where they were BAD. They traded some defense for offense with their offseason additions, and it’s unclear whether the trade-off was worth it, though it seems easier to manufacture defensive intensity than offensive skill. That said, their failures near the basket offensively have to be troubling, and for all his skill Rose doesn’t seem to make his teammates that much better.
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